Ukraine strikes Russian arsenal with ATACMS and lubricant plants with drones
Ukraine seized on US long-awaited permission to hit Russia with long-range ATACMS missiles. Plus, Russia scrambles to replace record losses and shore up its economy. Germany to vote on Taurus, again.
Democracy Rains Down on Russia
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 18, stated that day 1000 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 135 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, Russia carried out 2 missile strikes, 65 air strikes, 678 drone strikes and 3,930 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
Russia’s casualties, yesterday were above November’s average, at ~1,610, and the number of artillery systems destroyed also increased to 46. A whopping 120 vehicles and fuel tanks — which the Russians are increasingly using on the front — were also destroyed by Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Statement from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on reaching the 1000 day milestone.
1000 days of full-scale war.
1000 days of extremely difficult, fierce battle for our existence.
For the future of Ukraine and each of us.
1000 days of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confronting the enemy on the front, which stretches at a distance of over 1000 kilometers.
From the frozen trenches of Donets’k to the burning steppes of Kherson; under shells, rockets and bombs - we choose the right to live. For us and our children.
1000 days of wins and losses.
1000 days of destroying the enemy.
Hundreds of thousands of invaders will no longer desecrate our land, tens of thousands of units of enemy equipment will never destroy our homes.
Every dark night, even if a thousand of them, always ends with dawn.
And one day it will be the dawn of our Victory.
Gratitude to all who fight, gratitude to all who help.
Eternal memory to all who died in this war.
Hail to the Heroes!
Glory to Ukraine who is fighting!
Glory to the Ukrainian people!
- General Alexendr Sirsky
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of November 19, 2024 (from 7:30 p.m. on November 18), Russia launched 87 Shahed, Geranium-2 attack, and, increasingly “drones of an unknown type” (likely surveillance/spy drones) from the regions of Russian regions of Kursk and Oryol, and temporarily occupied Qırım (also known as Crimea).
Ukrainian aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups repelled the attacks.
As of 09:00, Ukraine destroyed 51 enemy UAVs in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. 30 additional UAVs were “locationally lost” through active countermeasures. Locationally lost means they were downed through electronic warfare.
We have no information on the remaining UAV: it was last spotted headed from Sumy towards Poltava.
Interception rate: 81/87 (93%). At least 5 drones hit their intended targets or weren’t intercepted.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think-tank, in its Nov 18 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, reported that Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area. Geolocated footage published on Nov 18 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northern Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha).
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near Nizhniy Klin (southeast of Korenevo), the Ol’govka forest (east of Korenevo), and Martynovka (northwest of Sudzha). ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims, however. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked near Dar’ino (southeast of Korenevo) and Nizhniy Klin. Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to break out of a Russian encirclement near the Ol’govka forest.
Ukraine's Pivnich (Northern) Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Vadym Mysnyk reported on Nov 18 that Russian forces are using equipment for assaults when it is available but are otherwise conducting assaults with small infantry groups. Mysnyk noted that weather conditions in Kursk Oblast are limiting Russian forces' use of first-person view (FPV) and reconnaissance drones, and a Russian milblogger commented that roads in Kursk Oblast are muddy.
Although DeepState’s map is a little outdated, we used it to create a video of how the Kursk incursion has developed since the shock invasion in August:
The Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group
(The Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group is responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Ukrainian forces repelled 6 Russian attacks in the area of Vovchans’k.
Kup’yans’k Sector: Russian forces carried out offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kruhlyakivka and Lozova.
Lyman Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Novolyubivka, Tors’ke and Bilohorivka.
Sivers’k Sector: No significant changes.
Kramators’k Sector: No significant changes.
Torets’k Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Torets’k and Shcherbynivka.
The Tavria Operational-Strategic Group
(The Tavria Operational-Strategic Group is responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovs’k Sector: Russian forces carried out 35 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Myrolyubivka, Promin’, Lysivka, Petrivka, Pustynka and Novooleksiyivka. 8 engagements continue.
Kurakhove Sector: Russia conducted 26 offensive actions in the vicinities of Voznesenka, Sontsivka, Berestky, Dal’nye, Yelyzavetivka, Katernyivka and Antonivka. 10 engagements continue.
It’s concerning that Russian troops have managed to advance to Dal’nye. The capture of Kurakhove would allow encirclement of the key defensive position of Pokrovs’k.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 14 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodarivka, Rivnopil’, Makarivka and Rozdol’ne. 8 engagements continue.
Orikhiv Sector: Nothing significant to report.
The Odesa Operational-Strategic Group
(The Odesa Operational-Strategic Group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, [also known as Crimea] and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovs’k Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment. No Groundhog Day! Instead of just 4 attempts, Russian forces made 8 attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro. But… they all failed.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Revenge is a dish best served… hot?
CCTV footage in Sevastopol’ emerged on Telegram showing the SBU’s assassination of Black Sea Fleet Captain Valery Trankovsky. The video shows a black SUV approaching an intersection, followed by a powerful explosion that shakes the surveillance camera. Parts of the car are blown in different directions as the car bomb was activated.
The Crimean Wind Telegram channel reports that the FSB (Russia’s internal security service) arrested two ‘suspects’ in the assassination. The FSB detained a 38-year-old resident of Sevastopol’ (Qırımtatarlar: Aqyar) for conducting surveillance, and a 47-year-old resident of Yalta (Qırımtatarlar: Yalta) for planting the bomb. They apparently “confessed.”
The FSB blamed the attack on Deputy Head of the SBU, Oleksandr Poklad.
Mass graves continue to appear in Mariupol’
Exiled advisor to the mayor of Mariupol’, Petro Andryushchenko, posted on Telegram evidence of more mass graves. Before-and-after satellite imagery shows mounds of what clearly appear to be mass graves appeared in a construction debris dump.
It’s not known how many Ukrainians have been killed or deported, but the city of Mariupol’ itself is estimated to be missing over 200,000 residents. Some of the dead may be Russian fighters who are “missing-in-action” (meaning the Kremlin doesn’t have to make payments to their families). Ukrainian children continue to be forcibly separated from their parents, and Crimean Tatars continue to be persecuted.
When this war is over—hopefully with a Ukrainian victory—I believe evidence will emerge of the deadliest genocide in Europe since the Holocaust. -RG
Russian forces scramble to replace heavy losses in Kurakhove and Pokrovs’k
Resistance organization Atesh and Andryushchenko report increasing withdrawals of troops and resources from occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson —often disguised in civilian transportation — through Mariupol’ (in Donets’k), on their way to the front in Kurakhove. Andryushchenko reported on Nov 14 that Russians began withdrawing artillery ammunition from warehouses in Mariupol’ for the first time since 2022. The exiled advisor also reported that Russians are replacing S-300 air defense systems near Mariupol’ airport instead of repairing them.
Key takeaway: Russia does not have limitless resources!
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy addresses parliament as Ukraine marks 1,000 days of Russian invasion
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addressed Ukraine's parliament on Tuesday in a speech marking 1,000 days since Russia's full-scale invasion, Reuters reports.
Here are key quotes from the speech, centered around what Zelenskyy described as a “resilience plan” for Ukraine. (All are quotes unless otherwise noted).
1. UNITY AND RESILIENCE
In decisive moments — and they will come next year — we should not allow anyone in the world to doubt Ukraine's resilience.
At this stage of the war, the winner is being decided right now. Whether us over the enemy, or the enemy over us Ukrainians... and Europeans. And everyone in the world who wants to live freely and not be subject to a dictator.
Unity is the first point of our internal Resilience Plan.
2. NATO AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
We’ve achieved the highest level of closeness with the European Union and NATO since our independence.
All necessary architecture for the negotiation process with the European Union has been formed. We have to move dynamically during the talks.
Ukraine's right to NATO membership is vitally important for all of us.
We have already concluded 27 bilateral security agreements with partners. Almost all are members of NATO, and they support Ukraine's accession to NATO.
3. SOVEREIGNTY AND TALKS
We will not trade our sovereignty, security or the future of Ukraine.
We will not give up Ukraine's rights to its territory.
And we will not abandon a rational approach to guarantee the rights of our state. We should act wisely. Maybe Ukraine will have to outlive someone in Moscow in order to achieve all its goals... to restore the full integrity of Ukraine.
4. ELECTIONS
We all know that Ukraine's Constitution and the law do not allow elections to be held in wartime. And no one in the world has demanded or demands this from Ukraine.
Ukraine first needs a just peace. And then Ukrainians will hold fair elections.
5. FRONTLINE AND WEAPONS PRODUCTION
There is no need for any speculation - our state is not preparing to lower the mobilization age.
We envisage quite specific measures to stabilize the front, conduct the necessary operations by Ukraine's defense and security forces — both in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine and in Russia against military facilities. And we also envisage measures for significantly greater technological efficiency of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Now in some front areas — and these are the hottest places — drones account for 90% of the destruction of the occupier's equipment. FPV and other drones compensate for the shortage of artillery in our army.
Next year Ukraine will produce at least 30,000 long-range drones. The task is to make at least 3,000 cruise missiles and drone-missiles.
Ukrainian weapons are one of the foundations of Ukrainian independence.
The President also outlined plans for strengthening human capital, communities, and a “cultural Ramstein” format.
Russian drones hit Hlukhiv dormitory in Sumy Oblast, killing at least ten, including 8-year-old, 13 are injured
Yes, this is another attack in Sumy that killed ten.
Two of the five drones that weren’t intercepted hit a dormitory in Sumy Oblast, killing nine people, including an eight-year-old boy. Other drones caused infrastructure damage in other regions, Euromaidan Press reports.
In Hlukhiv, Sumy Oblast, Russian forces struck a dormitory of an educational institution with two Shahed drones around 23:30 on 18 November, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported. According to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service, as of 10:05, 10 people were killed and 13 injured, including three children. The regional prosecutor’s office confirmed that an eight-year-old boy was among the dead.
Two apartment buildings and a hospital sustained damage in the attack. The Emergency Service noted that four people might remain trapped under the rubble as rescue operations continue.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine hits Russia allegedly with US ATACMS missiles for the first time on war's 1,000th day
Ukraine used U.S. ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time on Tuesday, Moscow said, in an attack regarded by Russia as a major escalation on the war's 1,000th day, Reuters reports.
Russia said its forces shot down five of six missiles fired at a military facility in the Bryansk region, while “debris” of one hit the facility, causing no casualties or damage.
Ukraine said it had struck a Russian arms depot around 110 km (70 miles) inside Russia and caused secondary explosions. It did not specify what weapons it had used.
Video footage directly contradicts Moscow’s version of events.
US President Joe Biden gave approval just this week for Ukraine to use the medium range U.S. missiles for such attacks, which Moscow has described as an escalation that would make Washington a direct combatant in the war and prompt retaliation.
It came amid plans for vigils to mark 1,000 days of war, with weary troops at the front, Kyiv besieged by airstrikes, and doubts about the future of Western support as Donald Trump heads back to the White House.
Military experts say US missiles can help Ukraine defend a pocket it has captured in Kursk as a bargaining chip, but are not likely to change the course of the 33-month-old war.
Ukrainian forces struck an arsenal of a Russian logistics centre in the town of Karachev in Bryansk Oblast overnight on November 19, The Kyiv Independent reported, citing the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces.
The announcement came shortly after Russian authorities reported drone strikes against the border region, claiming there has been no damage or casualties.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed 12 drones were reportedly destroyed over the territory of Bryansk Oblast by Russian air defenses.
Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz said the attack caused no casualties or significant damage (Sure, Jan). Karachev residents reported explosions and detonations, including an alleged attack on a “military base,” as shared in local chats and reported by opposition Russian media outlet Astra. The town lies more than 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
Twelve secondary explosions could be heard at around 2:30 a.m., the General Staff reported.
"The destruction of Russian ammunition warehouses in order to stop Russian aggression against Ukraine will continue," the military said in a statement.
Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's counter-disinformation centre at the National Security and Defense Council, claimed the attack targeted the 67th arsenal of Russia's Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU).
The official said the facility stored artillery ammunition, including North Korean munitions, KAB guided bombs, anti-aircraft missiles, and rocket launcher ammunition.
Reuters reporter Idees Ali posted on X that Pentagon officials confirmed on condition of anonymity that Ukraine had launched 8 ATACMS missiles into the Bryansk region, but only 2 were intercepted. Russia’s MOD claimed that 5 out of 6 ATACMS were intercepted.
Lachen Pishe, a well-known Ukrainian commentator, published footage of two ATACMS being launched in the rain, suggesting they were used to strike the Bryansk arsenal.
Meanwhile…
Developing: Ukraine continues to strike deeper inside Russia
We’re keeping an eye on several developing stories:
Ukraine quadcopters struck an EFKO plant in Voronezh, which has the capability of producing glycerin. Glycerin is used to make explosives.
Ukraine struck the Yevdakovka oil and fat plant in Belgorod Oblast. Lubricants are required to keep war machinery running.
Drones or anti-drone gunfire was heard in Novoshaktinsk, Rostov and the Kaluga regions
Trading was halted on the Moscow stock exchange on Tuesday after stocks plunged $2 billion following first ATACMS strike
AvtoVAZ, Russia’s state-owned auto manufacturer, said the Russian car market will collapse by 30% next year
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
'Putin is playing with our fears' — German FM on Russia's updated nuclear doctrine
Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to intimidate the West by expanding the conditions for using nuclear weapons in Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, The Kyiv Independent reported.
Speaking at a news conference in Poland during a meeting of foreign ministers from Germany, Poland, France, and Italy, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock emphasized that Berlin would heed warnings from Ukraine's neighboring countries. The meeting was held on November 19.
"We will not let ourselves be intimidated," she said, adding that this is not the first time the Kremlin has resorted to nuclear threats.
Putin’s approval of the updated nuclear deterrence policy was confirmed through a presidential decree published on November 19.
The revised doctrine expands scenarios that could justify a nuclear strike, including “aggression against the Russian Federation and its allies by a non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state” and large-scale non-nuclear attacks, such as drone strikes.
Baerbock accused Russia of exploiting the West’s fears, but highlighted Europe’s unprecedented unity.
“After February 2022, the federal government said it would not repeat this mistake a second time. That's why we are here together, cooperating as Europeans and representing the strongest European countries,” she said.
EU ready to step up support for Ukraine if US reduces aid, Polish FM says.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski announced that major EU countries are prepared to step up military and financial assistance to Ukraine if the US reduces its support under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration, The Kyiv Independent reported.
Sikorski, speaking after the same meeting of foreign ministers, stressed the importance of Europe taking greater responsibility for its security.
“Strengthening Europe’s defense capabilities must go hand-in-hand with maintaining the United States’ commitment to enhancing our security," noted Sikorski, as quoted by the Polish magazine Wprost.
The statement comes amid growing uncertainties about Western support for Ukraine. Trump has previously criticized military aid for Kyiv, and voiced intention to push toward a quick “peace” deal.
Sikorski said that he and Kaja Kallas of Estonia, the incoming EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, discussed strategies to bolster support for Ukraine.
"I gratefully acknowledge the readiness of the largest EU countries to take on the burden of military and financial support for Ukraine in the event of a potential reduction in US involvement," Sikorski added.
Trump said at a Mar-a-Lago event in Florida on November 14 that his administration will focus on the Russia-Ukraine war. The day before, he hinted at appointing a “peace envoy” to lead negotiations aimed at ending the war, according to Fox News.
Another Russian drone discovered in Moldova
On November 19, another drone was discovered in Moldova, this time to the north of Chișinău, near a local shopping center. Ukraïnska Pravda reported the news, citing the Moldovan National Police.
The citizen who spotted the drone immediately alerted the police, and representatives from security services travelled to the area to inspect the find.
NewsMaker published a photograph of the supposed drone.
Authorities discovered the drone near the Port Mall shopping centre and the Arena Chișinău sports complex.
German Parliament to debate sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine (again)
Yevropeys’ka Pravda reported that the Free Democratic Party (FDP) has submitted a proposal to the Bundestag to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles. Taurus missiles are designed specifically to destroy hardened targets, like bridges. FDP leader Christian Durr fell out of the governing coalition with the Greens and Chancellor Olaf Sholz’s Social Democrats last month. A vote of confidence is scheduled in December, which is widely expected to fail.
"The Biden administration in the US is taking decisive measures. Now Germany should follow its example and hand over the Taurus to Ukraine.”
Free Democratic Party leader Christian Durr, MP Bundestag
The current German government is a coalition of the walking dead. In theory, the opposition CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP have a majority in the 735 member parliament. However, the Green Party would be forced to vote against the measure to avoid triggering a snap election. CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who will likely win the Chancellorship in February’s elections, and Federal Economy Minister/Green Party Chancellor candidate Robert Habeck said they supported the move, as has Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. Scholz has repeatedly blocked the transfer.
MILITARY & TECH
Mini-Taurus: Ukraine may receive 4,000 German strike drones with artificial intelligence(?)
Take this one with a grain of salt.
So-called expert Julian Röpcke of German tabloid Bild, made another bold claim: that Germany is preparing to transfer strike drones capable of destroying hardened targets. The Ukrainian President’s Office has accused some of Röpcke’s “reporting” of being indecipherable from Russian propaganda. At other times, Zelenskyy’s office criticized him for “lacking understanding of realities.”
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian media space is actively discussing claims that Germany is allegedly supplying 4,000 mini-Taurus drones instead of Taurus cruise missiles, Defense Express reports.
At the same time, there is a well-founded assumption that this might refer to effective cooperation between Ukraine and the German company Helsing to develop cost-efficient strike systems for frontline operations.
Information about these drones remains extremely limited. The only available details include the name of their manufacturer, Helsing, and claims that the drones are equipped with advanced artificial intelligence for autonomous target engagement, electronic warfare resistance, and a range four times greater than Ukrainian kamikaze drones. Additionally, they reportedly have a cost lower than the American Switchblade or the Russian Lancet.
These specifications suggest that the drone is a loitering munition designed to strike targets within a range of 40 to 60 km: approximately four times the range of Ukrainian FPV kamikaze drones. This alone indicates that these drones cannot be considered mini-Taurus or match even a fraction of the Taurus missile's capabilities. The German Taurus cruise missile is designed to destroy heavily fortified targets with a 480-kg warhead and a range exceeding 500 km.
No drone, even one with a comparable range, can physically achieve the same destructive potential with a warhead weighing only a few dozen kilograms. The Helsing drones clearly represent another type of kamikaze munition, with a warhead of just a few kilograms, primarily intended for targeting armoured vehicles. A single glance at the drone’s photo—assuming it accurately represents the model—supports this conclusion.
Thus, the drones in question are more akin to the Switchblade, which, as noted, will be supplied in batches of several hundred units per month until the full contract for 4,000 units is completed. If the contract spans one year, this implies approximately 333 drones per month. While these drones could undoubtedly serve as an effective tool for striking Russian targets in the frontline and near-frontline zones, they are by no means a substitute for a cruise missile.
Zelenskyy orders domestic manufacture of 3,000 missiles and at least 30,000 long range drones in 2025
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that manufacturers will be required to produce at least 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 cruise missiles and missile-drones in 2025, Ukrinform reports.
The head of state made the statement while presenting Ukraine's Internal Resilience Plan in the Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday.
"We are accelerating all efforts related to drone production. Next year, Ukraine will produce at least 30,000 long-range drones. Our goal is to manufacture at least 3,000 cruise missiles and missile-drones. As we did this year, we will fully meet the targets for the production and supply of all other types of drones next year," Zelenskyy said.
He also highlighted ongoing work on Ukraine's missile program, which, although classified, has already yielded promising results.
“As for our missile program, many, especially the Russians, are already familiar with our Ukrainian Neptunes. But we've also made long-range versions of the Neptunes. […] I am proud of our Ukrainian developers and missile manufacturers.”
Earlier this year, Ukrainian manufacturers produced the first hundred missiles and successfully scaled up mass production of the R-360 Neptune cruise missile.
The day before, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed that in 2024, Ukraine managed to improve and scale up the serial production of Neptune missiles. According to him, the production of Ukrainian missiles is now increasing.
“We have successfully scaled up the mass production of R-360 Neptune cruise missiles with improvements to hit targets at longer distances,” the Minister stated.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily, please consider subscribing. It’s free!
Heroyam Slava!