Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Apr. 22 stated that it was day 789 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 85 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 45 air strikes, and 71 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Ukrainian missile forces struck 1 concentration of troops and 1 UAV control station
Ukraine likely to blunt Russian offensive if resumed US assistance arrives promptly
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their Apr. 21 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on April 21 that the swift delivery of US military aid to Ukraine could allow Ukrainian forces to stabilize the frontline and seize the initiative.
Zelenskyy stated during an interview with NBC News that US military support gives Ukraine a chance at victory but warned that Ukrainian battlefield progress will depend on how fast military aid arrives on the frontlines. Zelensky noted that delays in the delivery of military assistance have already contributed to Ukrainian materiel and personnel losses in “several directions.” Zelenskyy stated that the Ukrainian military is especially anticipating the deliveries of air defense and long-range weapon systems since Ukrainian forces currently lack significant long-range capabilities to prevent Ukrainian casualties on the frontlines.
ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces may suffer additional setbacks in the coming weeks while waiting for US security assistance that will allow Ukraine to stabilize the front, but they will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed US assistance arrives promptly.
ISW believes Russian forces will likely intensify ongoing offensive operations and missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks in order to exploit the closing window of Ukrainian materiel constraints.
Intelligence chief warns of a “complex situation” on frontlines in mid-May
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), said an anticipated “complex situation” on the frontlines from mid-May-early June during an interview with the BBC on 19 April.
“We expect a rather difficult situation in the near future, according to our assessment. But it is not catastrophic, this should also be understood. The Armageddon will not happen, as many are now beginning to say. But there will be problems from mid-May.”
— Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate
Budanov asserts that Russia will employ a “comprehensive approach” and conduct a “complex operation,” warning of challenges on multiple fronts. “I am talking about the front as well. This is a comprehensive approach because the Russians will use a comprehensive approach,” he states.
Budanov also said to BBC that Russia’s ability to replenish its missile stocks after a year-long pause in strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. However, he claims their aviation component has severely depleted its reserves. “Even in the latest strike? again, today’s day – only two strategic bombers carried out strikes. It’s not because they don’t have targets, but because they are saving a little,” he reports.
“We believe the coming period will be difficult. But difficult and catastrophic are different things,” Budanov said, adding that Ukraine “has already gone through difficult periods several times, and we [Ukrainians -ed.] will get through this one. There will be nothing extraordinary. We know all their plans in advance.”
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day they launched air strikes on 9 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment of the adversary.
Also, the Ukrainian Air Defense forces and means destroyed 2x Kh-59 air-launched guided missiles
On the night of April 22, 2024, the enemy attacked with 7 Shahed UAVs from Cape Chauda (TOT Ukrainian Qirim) and three C-300 / C-400 air-guided missiles from the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk.
As a result of combat work this night, the units of mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed 5 Shaheds, and 1 Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone, all drones were shot down in Odesa region.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 17 attacks near Terny (Donetsk oblast), and Serebryans’ke forestry (Luhansk oblast) where the occupiers attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 14 Russian attacks, supported by aviation, in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast) Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Vyimka, and Bohdanivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Ocheretyne, Berdychi, Umans’ke, Yasnobrodivka, Netailove and Pervomais’ke (Donetsk oblast) where the invaders, with air support, attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane and Urozhaine (Donetsk oblast), where the invaders, with air support, made 23 attempts to breach Ukrainian defense.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy conducted 4 attacks, with air support, on positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast), Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 4 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defence Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia targets Ukrainian port, destroying grain storage and goods for Asia and Africa
For the third day in a row, Ukrainian Emergency Service employees have been eliminating the consequences of the assault.
On 19 April, Russian troops hit the port of Pivdennyi in Ukraine’s southern Odesa Oblast, destroying grain storage facilities and foodstuffs they contained, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials.
Later, the Ministry of Restoration stated that as a result of the attack on the port of Odesa, the Russian military destroyed agricultural products intended for Asia and Africa.
“Two terminals in the Port of South, specializing in the transit of agricultural products, were attacked. One of the terminals belongs to the globally known Singaporean company Delta Wilmar, which has been operating in Ukraine since 2004 and also owns several agricultural processing plants. This amounts to over $300 million in investments and nearly 1000 jobs,” the department said.
The Ministry of Restoration noted that this was the 39th Russian attack on port infrastructure facilities in the Odesa Oblast.
“Overall, 215 structures have been damaged or partially destroyed, along with 153 vehicles, eight civilian vessels, and 26 civilians injured,” the department concluded.
Since Russia withdrew from a UN-brokered deal that had guaranteed safe shipments of Ukrainian grain last summer, Ukraine’s port infrastructure and its employees have many times suffered from Russian missile and drone attacks.
RUSSIAN WORLD
German company Knauf to leave Russia after scandal with construction in occupied Mariupol
German construction materials manufacturer Knauf is completely shutting down its operations in Russia after more than 30 years of work on the Russian market. DW reports.
The company did not name specific reasons for its withdrawal from Russia, saying that it is happening amid "current events."
Recently, the concern, whose turnover in 2022 amounted to 15.4 billion euros, again came under fire from criticism because of work in the Russian Federation, as well as in Russia occupied Ukrainian Mariupol. Since the Russian armed invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, all other German companies had already left Russia.
A special unit of the Russian army recruits rich Russians - for service FAR from the front
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Apr. 22 Intelligence Update stated that the husband of prominent Russian influencer Yelena Blinovskaya has joined the Russian Armed Forces military campaign in Ukraine in an effort to stop Blinovskaya going to prison on tax evasion charges. On 16 April 2024, Blinovskaya’s husband, Alexei Blinovsky, was pictured serving in a specially created military unit of the Russian Armed Forces, known as the Bars Kaskad, near Ukraine.
This unit was reportedly set up by Russian State Duma Defence deputy chairman, Dimitry Sablin. The unit is predominantly involved in Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle operations normally away from the frontline. It has been active since October 2022 and has had at least 10 United Russia Party members, and sons of Kremlin VIPs enlist. Enlisted VIPs are reportedly given a protection detail.
Enlistment with Bars Kaskad likely allows Russian elite figures to sidestep statutory Russian military service requirements with guaranteed safety and potentially curry favour with the Kremlin. Blinovsky’s case is the first recorded time where an individual has joined the unit to help a family member avoid prison.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Musk complains about “no war exit strategy,” Ukrainian President’s Office responds
Elon Musk, soon to be American ex-billionaire, has expressed concern over the absence of an exit strategy to end the war in Ukraine,on Twitter.
Musk, long known for spreading Russian propaganda narratives, has made numerous pro-Russian statements. In particular, he said on Twitter that if the war in Ukraine lasts “long enough,” Russia will capture territories up to the Dnipro River and the city of Odesa.
In response, Mykhailo Podoliak, an advisor to Ukraine’s President, emphasized the “realistic” exit strategy – the withdrawal of “Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.”
There's your exit strategy Elon — Russia goes home
US may send additional military advisers to Ukraine
The US is considering sending extra military advisers to the embassy in Kyiv, showcasing the latest manifestation of US support for Ukraine as Russia is seemingly gaining momentum in the "two-year conflict". Politico reports.
"Throughout this conflict, the DOD [Department of Defense] has reviewed and adjusted our presence in-country, as security conditions have evolved. Currently, we are considering sending several additional advisers to augment the Office of Defense Cooperation (ODC) at the Embassy."
— Major General Patrick Ryder (Pentagon spokesman)
The ODC "performs a variety of advisory and support missions (non-combat), and while it is staffed exclusively by DOD personnel, it is embedded within the US Embassy, under Chief of Mission authority like the rest of the Embassy," Ryder added.
The additional contingent would support logistics and oversight of the weapons the US is sending to Ukraine, as noted by four US officials and a person familiar with the plans, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.
The new US contingent will also assist the Ukrainian military in weapons maintenance.
Germany can send Ukraine equipment from closed Thermal Power Plants
Germany has invited Ukraine to look at German closed energy facilities that have equipment that Ukraine may need. According to Energy minister Herman Galushchenko Ukrinform reports.
"We are collaborating closely with our Lithuanian friends. Our teams of specialists in Lithuania investigate whether equipment from outdated thermal plants might be used for restoration and repair in Ukraine. It is not only Lithuania. Recently, the Vice Chancellor of Germany, Robert Habeck, promised to look at the closed German facilities, which can also be used," Halushchenko stated.
"Therefore, I, along with my colleagues and partners, emphasise that we need to get as much as possible from what is available. It can be new, used, even if it requires certain repairs – we shall carry them out so that it works in the winter and we can increase [Ukraine’s power output – ed.]," Halushchenko added.
The Minister noted that assistance from Ukraine's partners is constantly coming.
"That is, the first is the equipment, while the second is an energy fund to assist Ukraine. Several states, like Denmark, have already launched steps to increase their payments to this fund. Other states have launched programmes, which will be disclosed shortly. Significant amounts will flow to Ukraine's energy support fund, which we may use immediately," the minister concluded.
Lithuania announced in early April that it will be transferring thermal power plant equipment to Ukraine.
Blinken to warn China over weapons-related exports to Russia
US secretary of state Antony Blinken will warn China that the US will take punitive steps unless it stops sending weapons-related technology to Russia, as Washington considers putting sanctions on Chinese financial institutions. The Financial Times reports.
During a visit to China next week, Blinken will tell his counterparts that the US and its allies are becoming increasingly impatient with Beijing’s refusal to stop providing Moscow with everything from chips to cruise missile engines to help rebuild its industrial base.
Blinken does not plan to reveal what measures the US will take, but several people familiar with the situation said it is considering sanctions on Chinese financial institutions and other entities.
In an interview, deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell said China was undermining European security by supplying Russia with dual-use technologies at the same time as trying to develop closer economic and political ties with Europe.
“What we’ve tried to underscore with European and Chinese interlocutors is that these dual objectives are inconsistent, and that we want China to think very carefully about the way forward,” he said.
Russian foreign minister threatens the West with nuclear war again
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned Western countries for the [745th time] that their military support for Ukraine will result in a "direct military clash between nuclear powers". Reuters reports.
Lavrov said on Monday, 22 April, that the US and NATO were obsessed with the idea of inflicting "strategic defeat" on Russia, which exacerbates the risk of a nuclear clash, because nuclear powers are involved on both sides.
Lavrov said he was particularly concerned by the fact that Ukraine was supported by "the ‘troika’ of Western nuclear states" (the US, the UK, and France), which he described as "the main initiators of various provocative steps".
"We see serious strategic risks in this, leading to an increase in the level of nuclear danger [...] The Westerners are teetering dangerously on the brink of a direct military clash between nuclear powers, which is fraught with catastrophic consequences," Lavrov said.
Grumpy here — So Russia invading another European country does not create “serious strategic risks” but Ukraine’s democratic neighbours providing Ukraine with weapons and ammunition to defend itself does?
MILITARY & TECH
Nothing to report.
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