Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Apr. 20 stated that it was day 787 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 102 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 29 missile strikes, 67 air strikes, and 67 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Russian advances largely due to Ukraine’s lack of air defences at the front.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Apr. 19 stated that Ukrainian air defence capabilities remain limited and degraded, however, allowing Russian aircraft to operate freely without threat on certain critical areas of the front.
Russian milbloggers have recently amplified multiple pieces of video footage, including on April 19, showing Russian Su-25 and Su-34 aircraft operating at low altitudes near Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast and striking Ukrainian positions to support Russian advances in the area, and Russian milbloggers have praised Russian aircraft for enabling relatively quick Russian advances in the area since at least late March 2024.
The ability of Russian aircraft to operate over 100 kilometres deep in Ukrainian airspace near the frontline without sustaining significant losses indicates that Ukrainian air defences in the area are currently insufficient to deter or deny Russian aircraft from operating on the front line. The Ukrainian capability to conduct long-range strikes to down Russian strategic aircraft conducting combat operations may temporarily constrain Russian aviation operations as the previous downing of tactical aircraft has achieved.
This Ukrainian strike capability, however, is unable to compensate for Ukraine’s critical air defence shortages across the theatre. Ukrainian forces still must husband materiel and prioritise allocating its limited air defence assets to some areas of the theatre over others at great expense, allowing Russian aviation to support more consistent and rapid gains on the ground, including near Chasiv Yar.
Air Force Daily Report
The Ukrainian Air Force in its situation update at 06:00 stated that during the previous day they launched air strikes on 6 concentrations of troops and 1 command post
On the night of Apr. 20, the Russian occupiers attacked Ukraine with three Iskander-M ballistic missiles, two S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles from the Belgorod region - Russia, as well as two Kh-59/Kh- 69 from the Black Sea.
Two Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missiles were destroyed by the Air Force's anti-aircraft missile forces. Also, in the southern direction, three reconnaissance UAVs were destroyed - two "Orlan-10" and one "Supercam".
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations in this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions.
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 13 assaults in the vicinities of Terny, Yampolivka and Tors’ke (Donetsk oblast) plus Tverdokhlibove, Kreminna (Luhansk oblast) where the occupiers attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian attacks, supported by aviation, in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast) Verkhn’okam’yans’ke,Spirne, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 31 attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, Ocheretyne, Berdychi, Umans’ke, Pervomais’ke, and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast) where the invaders, with air support, attempted to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions.
Novopavlivka axis: Ukrainian Defence Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the vicinities of Pobjeda, Novomykhailivka and Urozhaine (Donetsk oblast), where the invaders, with air support, made 23x attempts to breach Ukrainian defence.
Orikhiv axis: The enemy conducted 5 attacks on positions of Ukrainian defenders in the vicinities of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast) and northwest of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to maintain their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 7 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defence Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Azov Brigade asks to be removed from blacklists blocking supply of Western weapons
Denys Prokopenko, the Commander of the Azov Assault Brigade, has called for the brigade to be removed from the US Appropriations Bill, which prohibits Azov from receiving Western weaponry in an article he posted on Ukrainska Pravda
This is an excerpt from the article:
"Nonsense. That’s the first word that comes to mind in the context of the current ban on supplying Azov with Western weapons…
Since 2017, and to this day, a number of US Consolidated Appropriations Bills have contained the following amendment: ‘None of the funds made available by this Act may be used to provide arms, training, or other assistance to the Azov Battalion’. It is also present in this year's Defence Appropriation Bill [...].
I emphasise that the very existence of such amendments and prohibitions not only prevents Azov from performing its combat missions more effectively, but is a blow to the defence capability of our country, tarnishes Ukraine's image on the international level, and is humiliating for the entire Ukrainian army."
— Denys Prokopenko, Azov Assault Brigade Commander
Prokopenko stressed that the amendment was added to the bills without any proof, relying solely on the word of the Western media, which formed their opinion under the influence of Russian propaganda. There is no evidence or confirmation of the lies that Russian propaganda has been spreading about Azov for the past 10 years.
This amendment is the reason why Azov was not equipped with the most advanced Western-supplied weapons during the defence of Mariupol in 2022.Even after the 2022 full-scale invasion, the amendment has prevented Azov from sending its soldiers to most of the leading Western military exercises and from receiving the vitally needed weapons that the Allies provide to Ukraine.
Nowadays, delegations of Azov soldiers are welcomed in the United States and Europe. Azov members have met with representatives of the US Congress and human rights organisations, and have delivered speeches at the UN, the Council of Europe, and leading Western universities.
Prokopenko stressed that Azov is welcomed at the highest level throughout the West, yet it is still not given weapons. He called for Azov to be removed from the US Appropriations Bill and all blacklists.
He added that Azov was the first military unit in Ukraine to adopt NATO standards on its own initiative: "With no Western weapons, we have become one of the most combat-ready units in the country in 10 years."
RUSSIAN WORLD
Fire breaks out at energy facility in Russia's Smolensk Oblast after drone attack
A fire has broken out at a petrol and energy facility in Russia’s Smolensk Oblast as a result of a drone attack overnight on Apr. 19-20, Vasily Anokhin, the governor of Russia’s Smolensk Oblast reported.
He also said that their air defence system had shot down the drones, but the falling debris caused a container holding fuel and lubricants to catch fire.
Firefighters are working at the scene to extinguish the open flames.
UK Intel — First Russian Strategic bomber shot down by Ukraine
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Apr. 20 Intelligence Update stated that on Apr. 19 Russia carried out air strikes using Tu-22M3 strategic bombers targeting “soft targets” in southern Ukraine. Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) announced that they had shot down one of the bombers with reports circulating online that show the Tu-22M lost control in the air and subsequently crashed in a field.
Later, the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that the bomber had crashed and that the search and rescue operation was ongoing. At the same time, Moscow does not recognize the fact that the bomber was shot down by Ukrainian troops.
British intelligence is almost certain that the reports of the use of the S-200 missile are true and that it was another successful Ukrainian attack against the Russian air force. It is almost certain that this was another successful action against the Russian Air Force (VVS) This system is likely the same system used to shoot down a Russian A-50 MAINSTAY on Feb. 23 2024.
This is the first time that a strategic bomber has been shot down by Ukraine's air defence system.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
After their PM halts Ukraine aid, Slovaks dig deep to help
A crowdfunding campaign in Slovakia to buy artillery shells for Ukraine has exceeded its target of €1m (£850,000), less than 48 hours after it was launched. BBC reports.
"We have to drive Putin out of Ukraine. We have to defeat him," said Otto Simko, a Holocaust survivor and veteran of the 1944 Slovak National Uprising against the Nazis. Aged 99, he helped kickstart the campaign to challenge the government's policy.
"I lived through the Second World War. I fought in it. I can tell you there was no point negotiating with Hitler and there is no point negotiating with Putin," Simko told the BBC from Bratislava.
In essence it allows Slovaks to bypass the populist-nationalist government of Robert Fico, who came to power in October pledging not to send "one more round of ammunition" to Ukraine.
The Slovak prime minister says the West's policy of arming Ukraine is only prolonging the conflict, and Kyiv should instead lay down its arms and sue for peace with Moscow.
The crowdfunding campaign has provided an outlet for those Slovaks who do not agree with him. By Friday afternoon, more than 32,000 people had donated more than €2m since it launched on Tuesday afternoon. The money will go directly to the Czech government's initiative.
"We're really pleasantly surprised at the huge force it's awoken. It's a sign of the resistance of Slovak society against the government and the foreign policy of Robert Fic." said Zuzana Izsakova from the "Peace to Ukraine" initiative, which is running the effort in conjunction with the Czech-based Endowment Fund for Ukraine.
China is leading supplier for Russian military complex
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has criticised China for supporting Russia's defence industry, saying Beijing is currently the leading supplier of critical components for the war of aggression that Russia is waging against Ukraine. Reuters reported.
Speaking at a news conference capping the end of a gathering of G7 foreign ministers on the Italian island of Capri on Apr. 19, Blinken said Washington had made it very clear to Beijing and others that they should not be aiding Russia's war effort in Ukraine.
"When it comes to Russia's defense industrial base, the primary contributor in this moment to that is China. We see China sharing machine tools, semiconductors, other dual use items that have helped Russia rebuild the defense industrial base," Blinken said.
"China can't have it both ways. It can't afford that. You want to have positive, friendly relations with countries in Europe, and at the same time, you are fueling the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War," Blinken said.
Secretary General expects NATO members to provide new air defence systems to Ukraine
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, at a press conference following the virtual meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, has announced that the attendees at a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting held on 19 April have decided to provide Kyiv with more air defence systems.
NATO Defence Ministers have agreed to step up and provide further military support, including more air defence. Stolenberg said.
NATO has mapped out existing capabilities across the Alliance and there are systems that can be made available to Ukraine. Stollenberg said he expects new announcements on air defence capabilities for Ukraine soon.
He applauded Germany’s recent decision to deliver an additional Patriot system to Ukraine.
In addition to Patriots, there are other weapons that Allies could provide, he said including SAM-Ts. Some allies who do not have available systems have pledged to provide financial support to purchase them for Ukraine.
“[NATO is] working with industry to ramp up production and to refurbish systems to make them operational and fit for purpose. In our meeting today, Ministers also addressed many other pressing needs, including 155 mm ammunition, deep precision strike capabilities, and drones.
Each NATO Ally will decide what to provide. Several Allies made concrete commitments during the meeting and are finalising contributions that I expect will be announced soon.
Help is already on the way.
— Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General
US Congress takes first step to unblock aid to Ukraine
The US House of Representatives voted on 19 April to bring the long-awaited Ukraine aid bill to the floor. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
A total of 316 members of the lower house of the US Congress voted in favour of the bill, while 94 voted against. A simple majority of 218 votes was enough to adopt the decision.
House Speaker Mike Johnson introduced the package of bills, which includes support for Ukraine, on Wednesday. It envisages allocating around US$61 billion in aid to Ukraine and allies of the US.
This will allow four bills on foreign aid and countering Russia, Iran, and China to be submitted to the House of Representatives for consideration, which will reportedly take place on Saturday, Apr. 20.
Four amendments were admitted to the "Ukrainian" package: two propose to exclude non-military aid to Ukraine altogether, another, authored by pro-Trump Republican Marjorie Taylor Green, suggests replacing all amounts in the package with zeroes, and another seeks to prevent economic aid from being spent on government salaries.
If passed in the House, the four bills will be sent to the Senate as a single package. Its final approval will be completed after US President Joe Biden signs it.
UK Defence Ministry has not spent half of money from international support fund for Ukraine
More than half of a £900m military fund for Ukraine run by the British Ministry of Defence has not been used because of bureaucratic delays in handing out contracts. The Guardian reports.
The UK-led International Fund for Ukraine counts nine countries among its donors. Critics claim its provision of weapons to the frontline has been slow. Of the £900m donated by governments over the last two years, of which £500m came from the UK, just £404m has been committed or spent.
Some of the equipment covered in the contracts signed will not reach Ukraine until spring next year, ministers have admitted. The delays are said by MoD officials to have been caused by a need to assess each of the huge number of defence companies that have tendered for contracts.
John Healey, the shadow defence secretary, said: “The UK is united in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression. As Russia steps up its attacks in Ukraine, its allies must accelerate military support. Instead, the UK government is on a go-slow in getting crucial new kit into the hands of Ukrainians. Speeding it up would have our Labour backing, as on Britain’s military help to Ukraine and on reinforcing Nato allies, the government has had – and will continue to have – our fullest Labour support.”
The International Fund for Ukraine was set up in August 2022 to finance military training and equipment for Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in February of that year.
It was designed to be “a flexible low-bureaucracy fund” administered by the MoD on behalf of an executive panel comprising the UK, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Lithuania. Money has been committed by Denmark (£133m), Iceland (£3m), Lithuania (£5m), the Netherlands (£110m), Norway (£119m), Sweden (£26m), Australia (£26m) and New Zealand (£4m).
Scholz - Countries close to Russia also doubt expediency of war
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has just returned from a visit to China said in an interview with Deutsche Welle (DW) that countries that maintain close relations with Russia also have doubts about the expediency of the war of aggression that Russia is waging in Ukraine.
Scholz noted that there was almost no head of government in the world who believed that this war made any sense for Russia. "This also applies to those who are very close to Russia," he said.
Scholz, DPA reports also pointed out that during his recent visit to China, he agreed with the Chinese leadership on the need to hold an international peace conference, which is scheduled to be held in Switzerland, to end the war unleashed by Russia.
He believes that talks with Chinese officials about the war in Ukraine during his recent trip gave a "very important impetus" to diplomatic efforts to achieve peace.
"Diplomatic efforts are something that are indispensable in this time-consuming process, and I am grateful that Germany and I personally have also been able to contribute," Scholz said
MILITARY & TECH
Speculation on how a modified S-200 missile could be used in several high value shootdowns
Defense Express has produced a speculative article regarding how S-220 missiles may have been modified to target like A-50s and Tu-22M3s.
Information revealed during a recent TV interview contained insights about the downing of the Tu-22M3 strategic bomber on the morning of April 19th and the A-50 airborne radar system (AEW&CS) on April 15th of 2024, respectively.
It was suggested that the weapon used in both instances was an S-200 surface to air missile, a weapon that by current standards is thoroughly obsolete.
"Each time different systems are used," said Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov while referring to the downing of A-50. "This time, we used, let's say, what was made from zero out of old parts, and so on. Something we modernized. The engineers worked well, trust me."
Yesterday, Budanov also spoke with The War Zone where he confirmed that it was the S-200 system that was used to take down the Tu-22M3 bomber, while the official statement from the Defense Intelligence discreetly noted that the russian aircraft was downed with "the same methods and devices as during the downing of the A-50."
Bydanov specified, in the interview to TWZ, that the Tu-22M3 was hit at a distance of 308 km from the launcher, whilst the A-50, according to the Ukrainian TV show, was shot from over 200 km away.
the S-200 originally exists in two versions: the S-200M Vega-M with a range of up to 255 km, and the S-200D reaching up to 300 kilometers. Regardless of which one(s) was revamped, the launchers had to acquire chassis because both variants are stationary systems.
The S-200 is static mounted normally however it is estimated in these cases that they must have been mounted on mobile chassis.
Defense Express suggests that for the operations against the Tu-22M3 and the A-50, two different configurations of the S-200 might have been used. Particularly, the difference between the distances to the target indicates variability of the interceptor's flight range and/or alternative equipment used for detection and guidance.
Although another explanation remains viable, too: the different range was just a situational condition, or just progressive stages of improvement of the very same modification of the air defense system, deployed for the destruction of both the Tu-22M3 and the A-50 AEW&CS of the russian forces.
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